ASF stalls demand for meal

China’s protein meal demand will continue to rise in 2019, but only marginally due to African swine fever.

Protein meal used in feed is forecast at 90.9 million tonnes in 2019, up 1% y-o-y. Demand in 2018 was humstrung by trade conflicts between Beijing and Washington.

Also. a move towards larger-scale pork production and increased use of commercial feed versus swill feed will contribute to recovering oilseed demand in 2019.

The projected demand recovery is due to chicken, cattle, and aquaculture production growth taking up slack in hog production caused by the ASF outbreak.

Total oilseed production in 2019 is forecast at 59.1 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous year. China will continue to require oilseed imports from Brazil, the United States, Argentina, and Canada.

Soybean imports are forecast to reach 91.5 million tonnes in 2019, up from an estimated 88.0 million tonnes in 2018, but lower than 2017 imports of 94.1 million tonnes.

In 2019, vegetable oil consumption is forecast at 34.76 million tonnes, up 1.4% y-o-y, while imports are forecast up 2.7% to nine million tonnes.

Source: USDA